99% Cancer-free

When almost entirely isn't nearly enough

There are lots of times that I feel sorry for people who are part of a group or organization that has its reputation unfairly tarnished by a few bad actors. (By the way, this is not the meaning of “one bad apple spoils the bunch” even though the saying is used that way sometimes. Instead, that one means that one bad apple really does cause the others to go bad, not just to just be perceived that way.)

Right now, I feel this way about ICE. They hired lots of people, some of whom probably wanted a badge and a gun and tactical gear for the wrong reasons, and sent them out into the field with probably not enough training. That is my speculation; you’re free to disagree.

I want to stipulate that the radical left already lost the immigration debate. The public is strongly behind having control of our borders and deporting illegal aliens who commit (at least somewhat serious) crimes while in the United States. What Joe Biden did with an open border should have resulted in his impeachment. It was one of the most outrageous failures ever by an American president to abide by his oath of office. None of my commentary should be taken as a condemnation of the basic mission of ICE or of most of their agents.

Now let me get back to being President of the Bad Analogy Club:

Imagine that I’m your doctor (and if you care about your own health, let’s hope this is never the case), you come in for a checkup and some tests and I tell you to come back in a week and I’ll share all the results with you. Sure enough, obedient patient that you are, a week later you’re back in the office and I tell you, “Good news, (insert your name here), you’re 99% cancer-free!”

(I just thought of this analogy yesterday and I’m rather proud of it.)

Exactly how much time over the next second or hour or week you’re going to spend thinking about the number 99%. None at all. All your time will be spent thinking about 1%. As it should be.

Until you know that the 1% is gone, the 1% gets all the attention.

And that’s how I see it with ICE right now because the 1% who stop random people not suspected of a crime and demand to see their paperwork, or the 1% who make an old man, an American citizen, walk out in the snow wearing only Crocs and shorts (even though they had a legit reason to go to the house), and certainly the 0.01% who was looking for, and found, an excuse to shoot a protester, will get all the attention from the media and most of the attention from the public, until they are gone.

The police chief of Brooklyn Park, MN, about 10 miles from downtown Minneapolis, told an unnerving story and said that many of the other local police chiefs have similar stories:

He goes on to say that these events are not common and that he doesn’t believe that the actions of these ICE agents are representative of all ICE agents. But whether you’re a liberal who just doesn’t like ICE’s mission or a civil libertarian like me who prioritizes civil liberties and constitutional rights of Americans over apprehending illegal aliens, the perception of these sorts of acts is one that comports with the original meaning of the “one bad apple” saying: they really do poison the organization.

We can quibble around the edges here: Do they poison the organization or just the perception of it. I actually think it’s both because what’s also going on is Dept of Justice and Dept of Homeland Security leadership all saying they will not investigate the shooting of the protester, so the barrel of apples is clearly rotten at the top as well.

This is a huge problem for ICE which, I trust, is a proud organization, proud of most of its agents, proud to engage in a valid, legal, and important mission. Furthermore, they want to be able to recruit good people. That’s not easy in a situation like this. Just as during the height of the insane “defund the police” movement and in the aftermath of the death of George Floyd, it became very difficult for police departments to recruit, and many are still operating with significantly fewer officers/troopers/deputies than they would like to have.

It’s a problem for the citizens because we should be able to trust that the people with the guns and the authority to use them are disciplined, well-trained, and committed to honoring the Constitution. Right now we can’t assume any of that.

It’s a problem for Republicans because midterm elections are, more than anything else, referenda on the popularity of the president. As I write this on Tuesday evening, the Real Clear Politics average of polls of approval/disapproval of President Trump has him basically tied with the lowest reading of this term at 42.4%. And the “generic congressional vote” polling has Dems up by 4%; when Trump was inaugurated, the GOP was up by about 2%. That’s a recipe for a blue wave in November, all else being equal. (Of course, all else is never entirely equal and issues from redistricting to the fact that Democrats, as a party, are even more unpopular that Republicans right now might save a few seats, but it’s hard to see anything but a very bad night for the GOP if this doesn’t improve.)

There are a LOT of things that President Trump is doing that don’t align well with his campaign promises. It’s beyond the scope of this note to go through them all; I’m just focusing on ICE today.

Trump promised to aggressively deport “violent criminals” and Americans are by a large majority in favor of that. But Trump then allowed Stephen Miller and Kristi Noem to change the mission to deporting as many illegal aliens as possible, even if they’ve been here 20 years, never committed a crime in this country, have jobs, and contribute to their communities. I realize there are MAGA folks on Twitter who love to say “this is what I voted for” but it’s decidedly not what most Americans voted for. Now Trump is in a tough spot: rein in ICE (which he recognizes is not a “good look” for the administration right now) and risk demotivating his base a little bit, or leave ICE doing what they’re doing and cause even more concern and anger among the rest of the population.

The smart money is probably on Trump doubling down or at least not backing down but I’m gonna take the longshot bet and say he finds a way to claim victory and reduce the ICE presence in Minneapolis. For example, “We came to Minneapolis to find and deport 800 known violent criminals. So far we have found, captured, and will soon remove 713 of them. So we are going to reposition some assets to cities that now need more help clearing out these illegal-alien criminals.” It’s a face-saving way of stopping the literal and figurative bleeding.

Because the more ICE is active there (and the more they behave that same way elsewhere), the more the public is going to be reminded of, and only think about, that ugly 1%.