What is an "election"?

Why the GOP might not get stomped in the midterms

First, a caveat: (Per ChatGPT) in the 31 midterm elections since 1902), the party of the president lost seats 27 times, or about 87% of the time.

• 1902 (Theodore Roosevelt),

• 1934 (Franklin D. Roosevelt),

• 1998 (Bill Clinton),

• 2002 (George W. Bush)

So I am not here predicting that the GOP won’t lose seats but rather making a case for why this could be election number 5 in the past century-and-a-quarter to turn out that way.

Sticking with ChatGPT:

The top non‑political definition of the noun “election” is: A deliberate act of choosing or the right to make a choice, such as deciding between options or selecting a course of action.

Far too many people focus only on the party they like/love or, more often these days, the party they hate. They spend so much focus on the one that they pay little attention to the other and forget that an “election” isn’t just about there being a winner at the end. It’s about making a choice that ends up picking a winner.

If you take all your political news from anyone but News Nation (centrist) or Fox News (conservative) or some of the small far-right networks that I never watch then you would think that most of the country hates Republicans and it’s utterly inexplicable that they ever won anything.

And surely a lot of folks don't like Trump including some folks who hesitantly voted for him. But remember that elections are choices and even though Trump lost in 2020, Dems haven't given the country a good presidential choice since Obama (and even he wasn't great) but was fortunate to be up against two bad Republican candidates in McCain and Romney.

Again, think about the actual meaning of "elect". It means to choose something from among at least two options. So whatever you think about Trump or the GOP, the question in politics should be the same as the most important question in economics: "compared to what?"

Sure, Republicans don't have high favorable ratings. Neither does Trump specifically, though generally he's hangin' around pretty well, at levels above those in his first term. Meanwhile, even with a recent jump in Democratic registrations, Dems have the bigger branding problem than the GOP does. I think the single biggest risk for the GOP — at least if the election were today — would be whether Trump supporters will turn out in off-year elections. Normally they don't. Still, the GOP could survive the midterms if the Dem base is also dispirited.

Democrats Regain Advantage in Party Affiliation

Note: Dems usually have the registration advantage but also usually have a lower propensity to vote so a small Dem registration edge doesn’t mean much about their chances of winning.

Meanwhile, this is what really matters when you remember what an election really is:

Exclusive | Democrats Get Lowest Rating From Voters in 35 Years, WSJ Poll Finds - WSJ

This is on point with the latter part of my comments above about whether Dems will turn out.

Many Democrats see party as 'weak' or 'ineffective,' poll finds | AP News

It’s a little outside of the main point I’m making today, but if Texas does in fact redistrict to create 5 new GOP districts and California (or other Dem states) don’t offset it with moves of their own, that could be enough to save the House for the GOP.

Remember, that Trump will not get anything important done for two years if Dems take the House. And he would likely be impeached again. That’s a LOT of motivation for Trump to try to get his people — who normally only vote when Trump is actually on the ballot — to turn out next November. I have no way to guess whether they will. Trump needs to hope that the Epstein stuff will be ancient history by then (and it probably will, but you can’t make any prediction with high confidence these days.)

Right now, in betting odds on Polymarket, looking at all four possible choices for Congress, i.e. Dems control Senate and House, GOP controls Senate and House, and both versions of a GOP/Dem split between the House and Senate, combined odds have Dems controlling the House by about a 3:1 margin.

Look, history says that all else being equal that’s a smart bet. But if there were ever a time in recent American political history that all else isn’t equal it’s now.

Finally, by FAR the most important thing in the midterms, or at least the proxy for the most important thing, will be Donald Trump’s approval ratings. And those are likely to be a proxy for how people feel about the economy. If Trump is below about 46%, it’s gonna be hard for the GOP to keep the House. If he’s below maybe 43% or 44% (per the wisdom of the brilliant Henry Olsen), the GOP will get stomped. And those numbers are likely to be driven by employment and consumer confidence. Probably the best thing that could happen to Trump is if a federal court strikes down most of his tariffs because those are already creating economic disruption and will likely cause quite a bit more (despite the apparent tame impact so far.)

Meanwhile, though, as long as the Dems are angry with each other — and just plain angry — the GOP does have a real chance to defy history.