Tuesday Morning Quick Thoughts
What's on my still-jetlagged brain
Good morning, folks, and thanks for reading…if you like my work please share with your friends. I’m trying to build up my Substack readership!
A few stream-of-consciousness thoughts which means they’re in no particular order, including not necessarily being in order of importance.
A truly must-watch interview
I request that you read my note and then come back and watch this:
Political violence
I was always a little skeptical of the categorization methods when, for the past several years, I kept being told that there was more political violence coming from the right than from the left. This is not in defense of idiots on the right, like the Jan 6 rioters. It just seems to me that the left has been quite a bit worse in terms for most of the past decade.
New research shows that — again using their methodology — there is more political violence from the left these days (though it’s a close call.)
I also note this…from NPR of all places: More on the political left are embracing conspiracy theories
There’s been some reporting that on the left-wing social media platform Blue Sky, the WHCD assailant posted lots of aggressively anti-Trump stuff. Just as X is now a cesspool of right-wing brain damage, Blue Sky offers the same for the left. It’s the worst sort of mindless, tribal confirmation bias designed to make people angry. And it does.
What this means is that if there’s an act of violence committed by someone on the left, people on the left who only consume left-wing social media will rarely or never read condemnation of it; they’re more likely to read rationalization of it. And therefore they are never urged in any way they find compelling to disapprove of that violence. (The same goes to a slightly lesser degree on the right but, again, it sure seems to me like most of the violence in the past few years has come from the left.)
This is why I hold out no hope at all that this event will cause any serious reaction among “liberals” against the most aggressive rhetoric spewed among their fellow travelers. If the assassination of Charlie Kirk wasn’t enough or if Trump’s actually getting hit by a bullet (albeit just barely) wasn’t enough, some guy not even getting a shot off at any of his actual political targets definitely won’t.
As someone whose son’s middle name is Rand, my mindset has long been that things must get much much worse in a nation before people get fed up enough to make important changes. As bad as it seems right now, it’s not bad enough for that. After all, we still live in a time when politicians on both sides and “news” organizations that have taken a side find it in their political and financial interests to amplify tribalism. And we have a president who does the same. And we have the despicable Jimmy Kimmel (who, not backing down at all, claims that his joke about Melania looking like an “expectant widow” was about their age difference). You get the idea.
Even if I take Kimmel at his word that the joke was about her age, it’s still pretty nuts of him to joke about Trump’s death given that he was already the intended target of at least two assassination attempts and that far too many folks of Kimmel’s political ilk daydream about killing (or someone else killing) the president. It’s just beyond stupid...and yet it seems like a hit with his audience.
So maybe the takeaway is that Kimmel, like Trump, is more a symptom than a cause of the brain rot in our society.
Nope, not optimistic at all about things getting better as far as political rhetoric and political violence.
Trump and Iran
After making a LOT of mistakes in the first 6 weeks of the war with Iran, Trump is finally doing something(s) right: He’s completely stopped talking about a timeline and stopped talking as if ending the conflict quickly is important. And he’s stayed focused on one goal: ensuring that Iran cannot make a nuclear weapon which should mean zero tolerance for any enrichment of uranium by Iran.
At this point, Trump has stopped looking desperate for a deal, is telling Iran to come to us or call us if they want to talk, while Iran is offering a plan to open the Strait of Hormuz. Basically, they say they’ll let all shipping go through if the US ends its blockade but they want to delay any negotiations over their nuclear program until later.
Trump should not consider taking this deal and I think he won’t. It’s a transparent ploy for Iran to play for time during which they can reassess what they need to restart their nuclear program.
The Iranian offer is a demonstration that the US blockade is severely hurting Iran by curtailing the majority of the regime’s revenue (from oil sales.)
It’s taken Trump too long to get his posture correct, but I think he has it correct now.
So many security mistakes
Sure, the Secret Service tackled the White House Correspondents Dinner would-be “friendly federal assassin”, but the list of questions or obvious errors is astounding and heads should roll at the Secret Service (and perhaps elsewhere.)
Just a few that come immediately to mind:
The shooter was able to come through a hotel stairwell that was unguarded.
Invitations for the dinner do not have names on them so there is apparently no ID check
How many times did the Secret Service shoot at the guy who shot one of them? Apparently 100% of the shots missed. Shooting a pistol with great accuracy at more than 15 or 20 feet is always difficult, and especially at a moving target, but these people are supposed to be exceptional shots. How was he captured uninjured?
Most people in the line of succession to the presidency were assembled at one location. That sure seems unwise.
Here’s who was at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner | CNN Politics
I’m sure there are plenty more, but this was a clusterf**k that could have had a much worse outcome. Sure, the few agents who encountered the would-be assassin mostly did a good job (other than apparently missing if/when they shot at him) but the fact that this situation was even possible represents a near-catastrophic failure.
Trump said he wants to have the dinner within 30 days. That would be unlikely in the best of situations, which this isn’t. FBI Director Kash Patel (who always seems in a daze except when crashing the US Olympic Hockey Team’s celebration) says that the security plan for the next dinner will be “entirely different”.
How long do you think it will take the Secret Service, coordinating with other relevant law enforcement and/or security organizations, to put together and get approved such a plan? I’d be absolutely shocked if they could do it in 3 months. I don’t think they can do it in six months. That’s not a criticism of the Secret Service; it’s a recognition of the complexity of trying to protect 2,000 people including dozens of political VIPs in a very large quasi-public space. I think smart money is on the next WHCD being at its regularly scheduled time next year.
The Ballroom
President Trump has crowed since the beginning of the new ballroom project that it will be privately funded. That's a good reason it should be. If I were to make an argument for taxpayer funding, it would be to avoid the appearance of pay-to-play corruption which already seems like a hallmark of American politics generally and Trump specifically. Still, given the relative permanence of the ballroom, the temporariness of Trump's influence, the promises already made, and the terrible financial situation of our federal budget, I oppose taxpayer funding for the ballroom.
Use AI for your resume
Welcome home. Interview with Senator Sasse was touching and yes a must watch! If you believe in God... hard to understand why he takes the good ones. He could have been a remarkable president. Decent values, a man who puts faith and family first, not politically motivated, respectful, intelligent... in contrast to the despicable interview with POTUS 15 minutes before. Very sad!
It may be better for Trump strategically to no longer have a timeframe for this war but that does not change the fact that he told the American people it would take 3 to 4 weeks. As I drive around town, it looks like gas prices went up 40-50 cents over the weekend. I’m not sure the working class portion of his base is going to like that much longer. We will see if he meets his objectives. (Regime change, no nukes etc.) I was also interesting to see a Russian oligarch super yacht pass through the straight. I understand why Iran let it through. I am not sure why it was not subject to the US blockade? Is there an exemption for pleasure craft?