Trump bombs Iran nuclear facilities

And I'm not at all surprised

A couple of days ago on Twitter I posted this after President Trump said he would make a decision “within two weeks” whether the US will strike Iran’s nuclear sites:

Trump's announcement could be a few different things, or a combination of any of them:

* Misdirection, and he's already decided to go ahead (or to not go ahead)

* An honest opening for Iran to "return to the negotiating table"

* More than enough time for the US and Israel to agree on a joint-strike plan, though I'd have thought they would have one already

If you were to ask me to bet on it, the "two weeks" announcement is 2% an opening for Iran to change their minds and start negotiating, and 98% misdirection while the US and Israel coordinate tactics for taking out Fordow and possibly other similar targets.

I noted to listeners on KOA that “within two weeks” could mean “in the next five minutes” and that I expected the US would act in less than one week.

Also, when in conversation on KOA on Friday with ADM James Stavridis, I said that two weeks was too long because the Islamic Republican of Iran has never been and will never be a good-faith negotiating partner.

It’s important to understand the Muslim (and particularly Shi’ite) concept of Taqiyya (permission, or perhaps even requirement in some situations, to lie to non-Muslims): How Taqiyya Alters Islam's Rules of War - Middle East Forum

There is no situation in which a delay for inevitably pointless “negotiation” does anything but help Iran and there is no reason to do anything to stop going after the existing regime’s weapons systems and its leadership (though I think the best course of action would be NOT to target Khameni himself.)

Nothing in human action is more unpredictable than war. And by the time you read this, events could easily have overtaken my thoughts but let’s briefly explore “what next?”

My take, in order of probability, of Iran’s reaction, and more than one of these can happen at once which is why probabilities add to more than 100%, though not all are mutually compatible:

• Iran lashes out aggressively at Israel, but they probably don’t have capacity to do so for long with missiles or drones but holds off (for now on attacking US) - 80%

• Iran tries to close/mine the Straits of Hormuz - 15%

• Iran unleashes proxies against US targets in the Middle East, an extremely risky proposition for Iran - 10%

• Iran stops all attacks and agrees to negotiate - 7%

• Iran unleashes a sleeper cell in the US to attack the US homeland, which assumes that Iranian agents crossed the porous/open US border during the Biden administration - 3%

• Some sort of internal coup takes out Khameni - 2%. If so, it is more likely to end up in some sort of military dictatorship than a return of the Pahlavi family or other (sort-of) democracy.

I note that Iran claims to have removed the enriched uranium from Fordow before the attack. Seems like an odd thing to claim. I have no idea whether it’s true but whether or not it is, it would tend to incentivize Israel (and perhaps the US) to attack Iran even more than they otherwise would.

I don’t know how much influence Russia has over what Iran does, or whether there’s a move to take out Khameni. There was news this morning that Iranian senior officials are meeting with Putin to coordinate a response.

Iran’s foreign minister heading to Russia to meet with Putin after US strikes – POLITICO

There are also reports (that I haven’t seen confirmed) of explosions at Bushehr, the nuclear power plant that has a lot of Russian workers. I think it’s unlikely that Israel or the US attacked Bushehr and it could be that Iran is making this up in order to get Russia to react angrily against the US and Israel: Iran media reports ‘massive’ blast in Bushehr province, home to nuclear reactor

It would be silly for me or anyone else to make any prediction with high confidence. War is wildly unpredictable. This enemy is more unpredictable than most, like a cornered tiger who, unlike most tigers, never just wanted enough food to survive but wanted to kill indiscriminately to begin with.

A lot to watch here including, obviously, what happens next in the Middle East but also, domestically, how the American public reacts. I think a moderate percentage (maybe around half) of isolationist-leaning MAGA folks will accept President Trump’s arguments about the necessity of the attack. Others will maintain their view that there should not have been US involvement. Some of those folks have deeply held views on this issue; I think they’re wrong but I don’t think they’re being dishonest. Others are anti-Semites covering their hatred with bogus cries of “American First”.

We’ll all watch together what happens next…