To split MAGA or not to split MAGA
That is the question
There's no doubt that the isolationist part of Trump's base is VERY upset with the possibility of US involvement against Iran even if that involvement is limited to a few bombing runs. They consider avoiding such "entanglements" to be at the heart of Trump's campaign promises. That doesn't represent all of Trump's base but quite a lot of it.
It also represents a lot of people who didn't have much thought about the question but shifted toward isolationism because Trump ran on it. Will those people just as easily switch to isolation-lite, i.e. we can drop a few bombs but absolutely no boots on the ground or nation-building? Some will, but many won't.
If Trump determines that he wants to help Israel take out Fordow (and any other similarly hardened Iranian nuclear-related target), he's going to have a politically fraught decision to make because if US bombers go in, even if the mission goes perfectly and there's no hint of "nation-building", the Tucker Carlson/MTG wing of his base will be really upset/angry. I mean, by far the anger and sense of betrayal they feel toward Trump will not be like anything he's faced before.
Let's not debate whether Trump would be correct in a decision to send US B-2 bombers to Fordow; I just want to talk about what it means if he decides that it's an important and valid choice that serves US interests; after all, it's "America First" with Trump all the time. What I want to focus on is the politics.
So then the question will come down NOT to "will this upset my base?" but instead to "do I care enough that it upsets the base to not do what I think needs to be done?"
This is perhaps the first issue where the fact that he'll never run for office again is a benefit. He doesn't have to care. But there are tangential potential consequences, especially how it might impact the 2028 Republican primary election and the general election.
One last note: I really think Trump would like to earn the Nobel Peace Prize. And I think he's already done things in the Middle East (with the Abraham Accords) to justify serious consideration. It's hard to see through war toward peace, but if US action, even if very limited, restores "peace through strength" and eliminates the nuclear threat, or even the very existence of, the most terrorist-supporting regime in the history of the world, that could further Trump's claim to be worthy of the prize. I have no idea whether that's something really in Trump's mind but it wouldn't surprise me.
Trump confronts rare MAGA purity tests on Iran and immigration
Tucker, lately a very bad influence on America, talking with Steve Bannon, an even worse influence and a fraudster who still somehow has quite a lot of followers:
Ultimately I think Trump will do what is best for not only our country but for the world. It is in our best interest that as a light of the world that we allow that light to be seen from the one country that it is still burning brightly. Israel is that light. The people are that light. In this time we must fight for truth and justice and that means supporting the place and the people. The light will never go out, for the one true G_d of Israel is behind his people. Trump was spared for this time and place.
I don't think a majority of the MAGA base are so isolationist they're not willing to deal with taking Iran's nuclear capabilities off the map. Yes, we're not keen on forever wars. However, Iran's regime is a clear and present danger to not only the US and Israel, but every other Western entity on the planet. It's hard to convey to people who aren't DOD/IC as to how crazy the mullahs and IRGC are - the IRGC are the survivors of the human mine detectors of the Iran-Iraq war. They're vastly more hard core than Americans, and others, can comprehend. The Israelis have seen this unreasoning hatred for decades, October 7 and the current counter value (population) attacks by Iran. I frankly don't care if the President puts a few hundred KT on Fordhow - but if he does attack, it will be with our conventional bunker busters, no boots on the ground in Iran. Iran is gelded - no air defense, no fighters. They're still dangerous. Never forget we (The USA) is the Great Satan. The Iranian leadership is brainwashed that we're sooooo evil.