They did but they didn't

Iran couldn't retaliate for US strikes but they also couldn't NOT retaliate

TUESDAY UPDATE: The ceasefire may or may not be holding after Iran killed Israelis with a missile strike after the supposed ceasefire time and Israel responded with attacks on Tehran about 90 minutes past the ceasefire time. Trump, on his way to a NATO summit, expressed displeasure with both sides.

Trump posted this:

ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

The Times of Israel reports “Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu then held a call, during which they reportedly agreed that one “symbolic” target would be struck in response to Iran’s ceasefire violation. In a later post, Trump said Israel would not attack Iran but would do a ‘friendly plane wave.’”

After that — and the timeline can be confused — explosions occurred in Tehran with Israel apparently attacking a radar facility in what is being reported as a “small strike”: Explosions head in Tehran | The Jerusalem Post

(I note that in situations like this, it’s possible for rogue elements within a fanatic military such as Iran’s — elements who oppose a ceasefire — to do something like launch a missile or three in order to cause the agreement to collapse.)

MONDAY EVENING UPDATE: On Monday afternoon, President Trump posted this on Truth Social (linking to duplicate on X):

CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World. During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL. On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, “THE 12 DAY WAR.” This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

A few hours afterwards, the Iranian foreign minister helpfully added this:

As Iran has repeatedly made clear: Israel launched war on Iran, not the other way around. As of now, there is NO "agreement" on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations. However, provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4 am Tehran time, we have no intention to continue our response afterwards. The final decision on the cessation of our military operations will be made later.

In other words, “there’s no agreement on a ceasefire but we agree to a ceasefire.”

And then he posted:

The military operations of our powerful Armed Forces to punish Israel for its aggression continued until the very last minute, at 4am. Together with all Iranians, I thank our brave Armed Forces who remain ready to defend our dear country until their last drop of blood, and who responded to any attack by the enemy until the very last minute.

In other words, “we fought until we surrendered.”

Early Tuesday, the Israeli prime minister agreed to a ceasefire:

In light of having achieved the objectives of the operation, and in full coordination with President Trump, Israel agrees to the President's proposal for a bilateral ceasefire. Israel will respond forcefully to any violation of the ceasefire.

Hilariously, here’s how Iranian state TV framed the ceasefire:

“The Sepah (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) successful missile operations in response to US aggression and the exemplary steadfastness and unity of our dear people in defending our land, has imposed ceasefire on the enemy.”

I wrote the following on Monday afternoon. While it all still stands and I think my analysis has been very good all through this war, much has been overtaken by events so that even though the writing is only 14 hours old, it seems slightly out of date. But read if you’d like to!

During my KOA Radio show yesterday morning (in fact while the great Jennifer Griffin of Fox News was on with me), reports started coming in of missile attack warnings in Qatar and then there were videos of defensive systems (maybe Patriot, but I don’t know for sure) launching against incoming missiles.

What was a bit odd about it — at least until you ponder for a moment — was that the Iranian government posted online that they were attacking, well before the attack happened.

It was reminiscent of Iran lobbing lots of missiles at Israel last year after warning that they’d be doing so, so that Israeli, US, European, and even Arab militaries could aid in shooting missiles out of the sky and there were almost no casualties in Israel. (Obviously Iran’s actions in this “12-day war” were intended to kill as many Israelis as they could.)

The purpose of this is easy to understand: The Iranian regime needs to be able to tell their own people that they’re retaliating against the Great Satan, etc., but needs to avoid massive retaliation by the more powerful militaries of the US and Israel.

As the warnings started yesterday, stock prices fell moderately and then as it became clear that there would be little or no damage (probably intentionally so), stocks rallied fast and oil prices (which had been down modestly all day) got crushed. In fact, when oil futures (WTI) opened early in the morning (or late at night), which was when there was still some fear in the market, they traded over $78 per barrel, up modestly from the previous days close of $75.78. By the time the trading session ended on Monday afternoon, oil was at $65.51, down about 13.5% from the prior day and down 16% from the opening price. That’s probably one of the biggest declines from open to close in the history of oil trading.

A LOT of people had crowded into oil in the prior few days out of (a not ridiculous) worry about Iran trying to disrupt oil flows in the Strait of Hormuz. I thought that was unlikely because 1) it would hurt Iran itself, 2) it would probably mean the US would destroy the Iranian navy, and 3) China probably told Iran “Don’t even think about it” because China gets so much (cheap Iranian) oil through the Strait. There was actually a guy tweeting at me last night absolutely giddy about how much money he was going to make because he bought oil futures “on margin.” Oh boy…how much did he lose today?

So now what?

Trump still wants peace. He always did. It’s one of the few things that he truly, deeply believes. The purpose of the US attack was twofold: destroy or at least massively degrade Iran’s nuclear program AND demonstrate that America has both the capability and will to enforce Trump’s red lines, whatever they might be.

It was the definition of reinstating “peace through strength”, a valid strategy that has never been applied to Iran before, with the possible exception of Trump taking out Qasem Soleimani in 2020, an action I immediately praised even as much of the foreign policy establishment (including some of my friends) fretted.

Trump took a jab at Iran after the attack, saying “I am pleased to report that NO Americans were harmed, and hardly any damage was done. Most importantly, they’ve gotten it all out of their ‘system,’ and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE. I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured.” I guess Iran better hope that their people don’t read Truth Social.

As noted in the update above, it appears that a ceasefire has been agreed to and is tenuously holding, for now.

That’s very good but not really great. Better would have been giving the Israelis more time to take out whatever targets they had remaining on their list. They’re saying they achieved their goals, but I trust they had a few more, including top Iranian military officers.

Iran has no leverage at this point. They have no important military capabilities and are utterly defenseless. Yes, they could try cyber-attacks or they could call for their proxies or loyalists to commit acts of terrorism, but at this point they’d have to think that American retaliation would be unsurvivable for the regime. At that point the question would be whether they’re willing to die for their fanatical beliefs. I suspect the answer is no, despite all their brave and evil bluster, and have said so on the air repeatedly. And thus the announcement of the ceasefire. The mullahs are more than willing to convince their followers to die for the cause but they like their own cushy lifestyles way too much.

Iran must agree to give up enrichment, give up existing enriched uranium, give up its ballistic missile program, and agree to any and all inspections. But will they really?

Tehran will restore its nuclear program, Iranian atomic chief vows | The Times of Israel

This Iranian regime is at least as untrustworthy as Vladimir Putin, as Xi Jinping, as any terrorist organization. Even if they agree to something, the US and Israel’s public statements about the deal must warn against Iranian violations and that they will be punished severely and immediately.

If Iran enters credible negotiations, agrees to “no enrichment” and the related provisions that accompany that major point, doesn’t unleash proxies or terrorists or, even better, if somehow this regime gets overthrown, the world will be a safer place and Trump will be the only person who should legitimately be considered for the Nobel Peace Prize.

(And if you’re unaware, I say that as someone who didn’t vote for Trump in 2024 and has been highly critical of him in other areas. But I’m not joking about the Nobel Prize. If this current situation works out even moderately well, and at the time of this writing it appears to be, nobody could deserve it a fraction as much as he does.)