Israel Attacks Iran
Just a couple of hours earlier, President Trump said attack was not imminent
In of the least surprising attacks of all time, Israel launched multiple strikes against the Iranian nuclear program including uranium enrichment sites, nuclear scientists, and IRGC and other key Iranian military leadership.
On Friday morning, President Trump posted this statement on Truth Social (and here’s an X link):
I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal. I told them, in the strongest of words, to "just do it," but no matter how hard they tried, no matter how close they got, they just couldn't get it done. I told them it would be much worse than anything they know, anticipated, or were told, that the United States makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the World, BY FAR, and that Israel has a lot of it, with much more to come - And they know how to use it. Certain Iranian hardliner's spoke bravely, but they didn't know what was about to happen. They are all DEAD now, and it will only get worse! There has already been great death and destruction, but there is still time to make this slaughter, with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal, come to an end. Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left, and save what was once known as the Iranian Empire. No more death, no more destruction, JUST DO IT, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE. God Bless You All!
Later in the morning, Trump said:
Two months ago I gave Iran a 60 day ultimatum to ‘make a deal.’ They should have done it! Today is day 61. I told them what to do, but they just couldn’t get there. Now they have, perhaps, a second chance!
I think this is a significant mistake. Sometimes Trump’s desire to appear like a great deal-maker "trumps" any care about whether it's a deal worth making. There is no point at all at even offering a "second chance" right now. You wouldn't offer the Third Reich a "second chance" and you shouldn't offer this Iranian reich a second chance. You should offer them "exile or else..."
Before going further, please do understand that Israel’s enemy is our enemy:
WATCH THIS: https://x.com/IDF/status/1933401703061258537
And related, he seems to have gotten this a little bit wrong:
Some context:
On Thursday, I told listeners that the US’s movement of personnel out of the Middle East suggested an impending strike on Iran, though didn’t necessarily point to American involvement in an attack.
Perhaps more importantly, I noted that after the IAEA formally ruled that Iran was in violation of whatever nuclear protocols it theoretically had agreed to, Iran made two extremely aggressive statements: First, that should it be attacked it would not hesitate to attack American facilities and personnel in the region. And second, that they were going to add another nuclear enrichment site and take other actions furthering their nuclear program.
My take (and this isn’t quite an exact quote, but close enough) was “Iran is making a huge mistake threatening the US when Trump is president. Trump is not Biden. Trump sent the Ginsu-knife missile to turn former IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani into so much steak tartare. This seems to me to be a massive miscalculation by Iran.”
UN atomic board censures Iran and Tehran says it will establish a new nuclear site | AP News
Iranian gov’t via X: One of our achievements is establishing a third enrichment center in a secure location. Iran's enrichment industry cannot be destroyed. In response to their illegal, ultra-political move, we are launching our third enrichment site.
Iran threatens to strike US bases in region if military conflict arises | Reuters
Shortly before the attack, a reporter asked President Trump whether he thought a strike on Iran was imminent. He said maybe soon, but not imminent. It seems more likely than not that he knew differently. If so, that was some fantastic misdirection by Trump.
61 days ago, Trump gave Iran 60 days to make a deal: Trump tells Iran ‘make a deal or it’s war’
Israel clearly had remarkably precise intelligence, resulting in this: Iran's Revolutionary Guard commander Hossein Salami killed in Israeli strike, says Iranian state media | The Times of Israel
And this: Report: Iran's military chief Bagheri killed in Israeli strike | The Times of Israel
And this: Iran state media names two nuclear scientists killed in Israeli strike | The Times of Israel
So now what?
German military strategist Helmuth von Moltke is credited with the line “No plan survives first contact with the enemy” (or something similar), which has a sports analog in Mike Tyson’s “everyone has a plan until he gets punched in the face.”
I’m sure Israel has a plan but much depends on several things, including:
how large and effective will an Iranian counter-attack is (so far it’s very weak…100 drones, mostly intercepted, but if you’re Israel you must not be complacent even if somewhat confident)
whether Iran strikes any American assets resulting in America’s getting directly involved
assessments by Israel of the damage caused to Iranian nuclear sites and other relevant targets followed by Israeli determination of the need for additional attacks to achieve its strategic goals
whether President Trump asks/tells Netanyahu to cease operations
I have no prediction, only gratitude that this long-overdue action is finally taking place. And, if President Trump explicitly told Bibi to go ahead, gratitude to Trump for overcoming his laudable distaste for war based on the realization that Iran has been bound and determined to obtain a nuclear weapon, an event that the civilized world could not tolerate and that Trump and Bibi had each said they would not tolerate.
Israel is courageously taking on not just their enemy, but ours.
Agree, and I have a couple of observations. I’m sure you know that the Iranian critical sites were hardened sufficiently to prevent complete destruction from air attack, so Israel undoubtedly has special forces on the ground to render even the most hardened sites totally destroyed and non repairable. Doubt that Trump wasn’t briefed on most , if not all of the detailed plans by Israel, agreed with them and allowed DOD to assist with intelligence if not actual operations.